BACKGROUND: Effective chemotherapy (CTx) protocols as induction treatment provide increasing opportunities for surgical resection of locally advanced pancreatic cancer (LAPC). Although improved survival after resection of LAPC with CTx has been reported for selected patients, reliable recommendations on the indication for conversion surgery after induction treatment are currently lacking. We investigated the factors predictive of prognosis in resected LAPC after FOLFIRINOX.

METHODS: Consecutive patients with LAPC undergoing curative resection after FOLFIRINOX between 2011 and 2018 were identified from a prospectively maintained database. Relevant clinical parameters and CT findings were examined. A scoring system was developed based on the ratio of hazard ratios for overall survival of all significant predictors.

RESULTS: A total of 62 patients with LAPC who underwent oncologic resection after FOLFIRINOX were analyzed. Tumor shrinkage, tumor density, and postchemotherapy CA19-9 serum levels were independently associated with overall survival (multivariate analysis: HR = 0.31, 0.17, and 0.18, respectively). One, two, and two points were allocated to these three factors in the proposed scoring system, respectively. The median overall survival of patients with a score from 0 to 2 was significantly shorter than that of patients with a score from 3 to 5 (22.1 months vs. 53.2 months, P < 0.001).

CONCLUSIONS: Tumor density is a novel predictive marker for the prognosis of patients with resected LAPC after FOLFIRINOX. A simple scoring model incorporating tumor density, the tumor shrinkage rate, and CA 19-9 levels identifies patients with a low score, who may be candidates for additional treatment.